Are reigning champs and minor premiers doomed to straight units?

We began the season with 18, it was whittled all the way down to eight, and by the top of this weekend, 2025 can have our last 4 within the hunt for the premiership.

First, although, we get to get pleasure from as tantalising a pair of semi finals as we’ve seen in years – two real line-ball encounters that chortle within the face of semis of outdated, the place qualifying last losers used to beat up on the elimination last victors simply completely satisfied to have made it a step additional in September.

However for 2 of Adelaide, Hawthorn, Brisbane and Gold Coast, the journey ends right here – and all can be dissatisfied to fall this near the end line.

Our specialists are cut up on this spherical of matches, with at the very least one tipster backing every crew. Who claims glory within the third-last week of the 12 months?

AFL tipping is BACK on The Roar for 2025! Get your ideas in right here.

Tim Miller

Adelaide, Brisbane

I went one out of 4 in tipping for Finals Week 1 – and it was the one I used to be least certain about, Hawthorn over GWS, that prevented a duck’s egg. Yikes.

I’m no extra assured about this weekend – actually, I’ve genuinely acquired no thought. Each these matches might swing both means.

On Friday night time, a weak Adelaide face a defining take a look at towards the darkest of darkish horses this September, Hawthorn. It’s simply the third time, and first since 2006, that eighth has confronted first in a semi last – each these two earlier encounters had been bloodbaths. This can be something however.

The issue for the Crows is that the game-turner of their thrilling win over the Hawks final trip was none apart from Izak Rankine – not very useful this week. As for the Hawks, Josh Weddle is again within the crew from that encounter, whereas the backline assist up magnificently towards 72 Giants inside 50s, and is completely primed for the problem of Adelaide’s three-headed monster.

It’s a real coin-flip, this one. I’m backing the Crows, principally as a result of we are likely to underrate qualifying last losers as a rule, and so they had been minor premiers for a motive. However I’d accept a very good sport.

Saturday night time is simply as intriguing – a Pineapple Grapple like no different, leaving Fremantle and West Coast as the one non-Victorian state rivals with out at the very least one last between them. It’s historical past for Queensland, and fingers crossed the Gabba is packed to the rafters.

I’m so near choosing the Suns right here – they laughed at my thought that they had been September’s weakest crew by pipping Freo in an epic elimination last final week, they destroyed Brisbane of their final encounter, and the Lions’ listing of casualties is approaching a tipping level.

However just like the Crows, the Lions had been prime 4 for a motive – they’ve an excellent file, with or with out Lachie Neale, towards their different finalists, and I don’t suppose a straight-sets exit is their destiny.

Current historical past suggests I can be incorrect with considered one of the following tips – since 2013, simply twice have each qualifying last losers recovered to win their semis. However then again, solely in 2014 have we seen TWO straight-sets exits below the present finals system – this at the very least assures me of getting one tip proper, as a result of I simply know if I went one-apiece, I’d get each ideas incorrect.

Jack Gunston celebrates a purpose in his 250th sport. (Picture by Morgan Hancock/AFL Images/by way of Getty Photographs)

Dem Panopoulos

Hawthorn, Gold Coast

By no means doubt the standard finals footy can present.

We had nice video games, nice moments, highly effective showings and heartbreak all spherical in Week 1 – now, we’re left with the ultimate two video games outdoors Victoria of the season. Each ought to give us loads of curiosity.

Given within the finals predictions final week, I went with Adelaide and Brisbane shedding in straight units, it’s laborious to then tip towards it now, regardless of Fremantle’s failure.

The Crows are enjoying with home cash – this season has been successful general, however they failed miserably of their first finals look in fairly some time and can absolutely be determined to proper final week’s wrongs. But whereas it acquired a bit shaky for Hawthorn towards the Giants, they had been clearly the higher crew general, and regarded like an expert outfit that knew precisely find out how to win in September.

It’s laborious to consider we’d get such poor performances out of a handful of Adelaide stars once more, but when there’s one crew who can limit them, it’s the Hawks.

On the flipside, the Lions are damage and bothered, however the Suns have the shorter break from Perth – and the burden of final week’s feelings can be both selling a magical run, or might find yourself destroying the group.

Brisbane felt Eric Hipwood’s absence and regarded as toothless as anticipated for a lot of the night time towards Geelong. Hugh McCluggage was shut down and that was it for the midfield, whereas the defence was predictably leaky.

The Suns, in the meantime, felt in management for lots of their upset win, however had been capable of be carved up by means of fast ball use – the excessive line failed them a few occasions.

I select to consider fairytales do exist – nothing towards Brisbane, who’re completely able to overcoming their very own damage odds to win this one, however it simply feels proper that the Suns may effectively be fairly in pink on Saturday.

Mac Andrew takes a mark. (Picture by Albert Perez/AFL Images by way of Getty Photographs)

Liam Salter

Adelaide, Gold Coast

Goddamn, that is laborious. I might feasibly – and legitimately – tip both crew in both sport, and have good causes to take action. 

Friday night time’s conflict appears a magnificence, and momentum is with the guests. The Crows wilted – and wilted badly – towards the Pies, whereas the Hawks had been elegant in dismantling the Giants – and are actually confronted with a semi last towards a South Australian opponent.

Surprise how the final one turned out.

I joke, however actually – they wouldn’t need it to be like six of their previous seven video games on the Adelaide Oval – the Hawks don’t actually like it there.

You’ll be able to’t count on the Crows’ normally intimidating ahead line to flounder, once more, and their defence needs to be as much as the duty towards the Hawks’ harmful ahead outfit. The midfield battle, a lot as it’ll all weekend, can be crucial, and it’s most likely the weakest hyperlink in Hawthorn’s armour.

I stated in my pre-finals tipping piece that whoever misplaced the Adelaide-Collingwood qualifying last could be bundled out in straight units. And but right here I’m, committing a cardinal sin, backtracking on that tip: the Hawks stay the younger, brash upstarts, however this very wild, very controversial, very enjoyable Adelaide trip will reside to die one other day. 

Dwelling to die one other day, already, are the Suns. They surprised Freo with a ferocity and braveness final week that belied the very fact it was their finals debut, and completely deserve their place up towards the outdated enemy tomorrow night time. 

Brisbane have received the final seven QClashes (or Pineapple Grapple, or regardless of the cool children are calling it) on the Gabba, which provides a meagre little bit of hope the best way of the minor premiers, however there’s lots to dispel that hope.

One vital stumbling block is the lack of Lachie Neale, which is a blow to the Lions’ midfield. Not excellent news – the Suns’ one-two midfield punch of Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson had been sensible towards the Dockers, and in the event that they’re going, then the Suns are routinely in a very good place (they know this effectively, having dominated the Lions in late July).

Actually, it’s that late July sport that really thrust the Suns to the forefront of individuals’s consideration. I’m not saying this can be near the ten-goal thrashing that encounter was – it’ll be a lot, a lot nearer – however smart folks could be tipping the Lions. Identical to smart folks backed Freo.

Screw sensibility, embrace one thing new. Suns win a thriller. 

What a stupidly good set of video games we’ve acquired. The actual winner is footy – and us.