Albanese’s migrant rent-a-vote in Melbourne and Sydney kicked in at Saturday’s election. Forecast immigration figures will proceed to flavour election outcomes for Labor into the longer term
Census knowledgeable Glenn Capuano unpacks the newest inhabitants progress and decline developments by Native Authorities Space (LGA) in Australia, primarily based on newly launched ABS knowledge for the 2023–24 monetary 12 months. As of June 30, 2024, Australia’s inhabitants reached 27.2 million—an annual improve of over 540,000 folks, with internet abroad migration accounting for a staggering 80% of that progress. Whereas this marks the second-largest inhabitants improve ever recorded in absolute phrases (following 2023’s file), early indicators level to a possible slowdown in progress. That is the third annual replace for the reason that 2021 Census, providing priceless perception forward of the following nationwide depend in 2026. New ERP knowledge will likely be obtainable in our profile.id and financial system.id instruments this week.
The newest inhabitants progress knowledge are out for the 2023-24 12 months. Every year round late March the ABS releases this with a reference interval of the tip of monetary 12 months, June thirtieth of the earlier 12 months. That is our third yearly replace for the reason that 2021 Census – with a reminder that all of it will get revised once more primarily based on the outcomes of the 2026 Census.
The newest inhabitants knowledge reveals that Australia’s inhabitants stood at 27,194,369 at June thirtieth, 2024, a progress of 541,592 folks in a 12 months, pushed by excessive abroad migration and low emigration (internet abroad migration making up 80% of complete progress). This was the second-largest annual progress (however not quickest in proportion phrases) ever recorded in Australia, after 2023’s file. Indications are that within the latter a part of the monetary 12 months (and the one quarter now we have nationally since then) progress has slowed down, however migration stays excessive in historic phrases, and that’s the place most of our inhabitants progress comes from. Our inhabitants forecasters are assuming internet abroad migration stays greater than official authorities forecasts into 2026/27.
The return to the cities continues
The principle focus of this launch is the regional variation. This reveals that progress in our capital cities is greater than in regional areas, with the mixed 8 capital cities of Australia including 427,000 folks in comparison with regional Australia’s 113,000. This implies 79% of all inhabitants progress is in Australia’s Larger Capital Metropolis Areas. It continues a development since COVID of a return to the cities, reversing the exodus of 2020-22.
At a capital metropolis stage in 2023-24, Larger Perth was the quickest rising, including 72,700 folks, or 3.15%, whereas Larger Melbourne added the most individuals, simply over 142,000 for the monetary 12 months, and the second quickest progress at 2.74% simply forward of Brisbane’s 2.69%. Hobart had by far the slowest progress including lower than 1,000 folks.
This desk may characterize Labor’s proportion voting margins.
| Capital metropolis | ERP at 30 June 2024 | 2023-24 (no.) | 2023-24 (%) |
| Sydney | 5,557,233 | 107,538 | 1.97% |
| Melbourne | 5,350,705 | 142,637 | 2.74% |
| Brisbane | 2,780,063 | 72,930 | 2.69% |
| Adelaide | 1,469,163 | 22,125 | 1.53% |
| Perth | 2,384,371 | 72,742 | 3.15% |
| Hobart | 254,930 | 946 | 0.37% |
| Darwin | 152,489 | 1,367 | 0.90% |
| Canberra | 473,855 | 7,496 | 1.61% |
| Complete capital cities | 18,422,809 | 427,781 | 2.38% |
Supply: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Regional inhabitants 2023-24 monetary 12 months,
(ERP-Enterprise Useful resource Planning software program)
Sydney vs Melbourne
Sydney stays bigger than Melbourne on the broadly used metric of the Larger Capital Metropolis Statistical Areas – these are steady huge boundaries across the cities, and in Sydney’s case contains the Central Coast.
Melbourne is bigger on one other measure, the “Vital City Space”, with a inhabitants of 5,245,182; about 100,000 greater than Sydney’s 5,143,256. On this measure, which isn’t as broadly used because the “Larger Capital Metropolis”, Sydney excludes the Central Coast and each cities exclude some outlying semi-rural areas making Melbourne bigger when measuring contiguous city space. We will say that Melbourne and Sydney on any measure are actually very related in measurement, and roughly twice as massive as the following largest metropolis in Australia. From Knowledgeable Choices
